Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 30 nonstops

Today: DL 1264 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–36%.

Safest bet today DL 1264 ORD 05:30 → ATL 08:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 1442 ORD 19:42 → ATL 22:59 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1264 Delta Flight history →	ORD 05:30	ATL 08:29	8%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2684 United Flight history →	ORD 10:29	ATL 13:44	11%	5%	0.7%	86%
DL 1477 Delta Flight history →	ORD 15:22	ATL 18:36	11%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 1147 Delta Flight history →	ORD 11:20	ATL 14:25	11%	3%	0.7%	80%
UA 425 United Flight history →	ORD 07:12	ATL 10:27	11%	4%	0.4%	86%
DL 1247 Delta Flight history →	ORD 06:35	ATL 09:37	11%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 2894 Delta Flight history →	ORD 13:44	ATL 16:54	13%	3%	0.7%	72%
UA 2249 United Flight history →	ORD 06:55	ATL 10:05	14%	4%	0.4%	89%
DL 1687 Delta	ORD 08:08	ATL 11:17	14%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 4759 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ORD 11:45	ATL 14:57	14%	3%	0.7%	68%
UA 2779 United	ORD 11:54	ATL 15:03	14%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 2426 Delta Flight history →	ORD 08:03	ATL 11:06	15%	3%	0.6%	85%
AA 639 American	ORD 06:48	ATL 09:59	15%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 356 United Flight history →	ORD 13:55	ATL 17:10	16%	7%	0.7%	75%
DL 2740 Delta Flight history →	ORD 18:22	ATL 21:39	16%	5%	0.7%	71%
DL 1178 Delta Flight history →	ORD 09:45	ATL 12:51	17%	3%	0.5%	87%
UA 530 United Flight history →	ORD 09:07	ATL 12:22	17%	4%	0.4%	82%
DL 1652 Delta	ORD 18:34	ATL 21:42	20%	5%	0.8%	no record
AA 3033 American	ORD 15:07	ATL 18:18	22%	10%	0.9%	no record
AA 1138 American	ORD 13:04	ATL 16:12	22%	9%	0.9%	no record
AA 1153 American	ORD 08:37	ATL 11:44	23%	6%	0.4%	no record
AA 2910 American Flight history →	ORD 11:08	ATL 14:15	23%	8%	0.8%	75%
UA 2770 United Flight history →	ORD 20:09	ATL 23:30	23%	9%	0.8%	69%
AA 1375 American Flight history →	ORD 15:54	ATL 18:58	23%	10%	0.9%	46%
UA 1398 United Flight history →	ORD 18:20	ATL 21:41	24%	6%	0.7%	58%
AA 1363 American Flight history →	ORD 08:30	ATL 11:33	25%	6%	0.4%	77%
F9 1596 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 10:36	ATL 13:47	28%	8%	1.0%	74%
AA 2472 American Flight history →	ORD 19:32	ATL 22:43	29%	14%	1.0%	63%
AA 2779 American Flight history →	ORD 18:59	ATL 22:03	33%	13%	1.0%	51%
F9 1442 Frontier Flight history →	ORD 19:42	ATL 22:59	36%	16%	1.2%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON