Today: YX 3631 at 15:35 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–27%.

Safest bet today YX 3631 ORD 15:35 → ELP 18:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 5533 ORD 19:45 → ELP 22:28 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Against a calm day 19% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3631 Republic	ORD 15:35	ELP 18:09	9%	2%	0.1%	no record
AA 3895 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:19	ELP 23:45	19%	3%	0.2%	68%
AA 3948 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	ORD 21:21	ELP 23:31	21%	3%	0.2%	81%
UA 5533 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	ORD 19:45	ELP 22:28	27%	10%	0.4%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON