Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:03 pm at Chicago); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, MQ 3684 at 20:54, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


MQ 3684 Envoy	ORD 20:54	ILM 00:15	15%	2%	0.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Wilmington is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	ORD 15:22 → ATL 18:36DL 1477	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070	6h 34m	98%	82%
United Details →	ORD 15:57 → EWR 19:33UA 2171	2h 20m Newark	EWR 21:53 → ILM 23:44UA 3592 · flown by Republic	6h 47m	92%	73%
American Details →	ORD 16:45 → CLT 19:59AA 1683	2h 26m Charlotte	CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017	5h 48m	91%	59%
American Details →	ORD 15:49 → DFW 18:25AA 2754	1h 45m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:10 → ILM 23:57AA 1841	7h 08m	89%	52%
American Details →	ORD 15:04 → LGA 18:24AA 3050	1h 35m New York	LGA 19:59 → ILM 22:01AA 4792 · flown by Republic	5h 57m	77%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON