Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 26 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2742 at 06:59 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–45%.

Safest bet that day WN 2742 MCO 06:59 → MDW 08:54 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2089 MCO 16:41 → ORD 18:59 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 23% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2742 Southwest	MCO 06:59	MDW 08:54	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 2654 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:25	MDW 09:15	7%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	7%	3%	0.8%	91%
UA 1150 United Flight history →	MCO 07:09	ORD 09:18	8%	3%	0.7%	89%
WN 2152 Southwest	MCO 08:14	MDW 10:09	8%	2%	0.7%	no record
UA 2466 United Flight history →	MCO 10:52	ORD 13:02	8%	3%	0.7%	92%
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	8%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:15	ORD 09:22	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1340 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:15	MDW 10:00	8%	2%	0.8%	88%
AA 465 American Flight history →	MCO 08:33	ORD 10:38	9%	3%	0.8%	84%
AA 3018 American Flight history →	MCO 07:51	ORD 09:59	11%	4%	0.8%	88%
WN 4037 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:10	MDW 10:55	11%	2%	0.8%	80%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:34	ORD 14:42	13%	5%	0.7%	82%
AA 2067 American Flight history →	MCO 11:38	ORD 13:45	14%	5%	0.7%	91%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	18%	7%	0.7%	72%
F9 3043 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	ORD 09:11	19%	6%	1.3%	78%
WN 2657 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:00	MDW 14:40	22%	6%	0.8%	52%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	27%	12%	1.2%	70%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	30%	9%	0.9%	58%
WN 4762 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	MDW 00:45	33%	10%	1.2%	50%
AA 2066 American Flight history →	MCO 15:10	ORD 17:28	35%	10%	1.0%	51%
F9 2791 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:59	ORD 23:10	37%	16%	2.7%	58%
WN 2658 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:05	MDW 18:00	37%	12%	1.3%	60%
WN 2659 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:10	MDW 20:10	41%	13%	1.3%	51%
WN 2660 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	MDW 21:25	42%	14%	1.3%	38%
AA 2089 American Flight history →	MCO 16:41	ORD 18:59	45%	13%	1.2%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON