Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 18 nonstops

Tomorrow looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 12% on a calm day. Safest: WN 2999 at 06:31, 6%.

Safest bet that day WN 2999 MCO 06:31 → HOU 07:57 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4493 MCO 19:35 → HOU 21:05 · 56% chance 15+ min late · usually 35% on time

Weather 26% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2999 Southwest	MCO 06:31	HOU 07:57	6%	2%	0.8%	no record
WN 2636 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 06:55	HOU 08:25	6%	2%	0.8%	97%
UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	11%	4%	0.9%	95%
WN 2637 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:05	HOU 09:35	11%	2%	0.8%	98%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	14%	3%	0.9%	88%
WN 2118 Southwest	MCO 08:51	HOU 10:17	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3174 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:40	HOU 11:10	16%	3%	0.7%	90%
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	20%	5%	0.8%	95%worse than usual
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	20%	7%	0.9%	87%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:45	22%	6%	0.9%	87%
WN 2721 Southwest	MCO 12:45	HOU 14:11	32%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 1360 United Flight history →	MCO 15:45	IAH 17:24	33%	13%	1.2%	62%
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	37%	25%	1.3%	66%
UA 2215 United Flight history →	MCO 19:20	IAH 20:55	38%	19%	1.6%	68%
WN 4654 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 16:40	HOU 18:15	41%	16%	1.2%	53%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:36	IAH 18:25	41%	16%	1.6%	76%worse than usual
WN 2645 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:20	HOU 23:50	47%	16%	1.0%	52%
WN 4493 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:35	HOU 21:05	56%	25%	1.3%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON