Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 7:00 AM ET · 34 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2728 at 06:23 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–50%.

Safest bet that day WN 2728 MCO 06:23 → BWI 08:46 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 2424 MCO 17:34 → DCA 19:59 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 21% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2728 Southwest	MCO 06:23	BWI 08:46	4%	1%	0.9%	no record
WN 2691 Southwest	MCO 07:38	BWI 10:01	6%	2%	0.9%	no record
WN 1956 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 07:40	BWI 09:55	8%	2%	0.9%	93%
WN 2611 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 08:40	BWI 10:55	8%	2%	0.9%	94%
UA 276 United Flight history →	MCO 08:55	IAD 11:14	8%	3%	0.7%	95%
AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	8%	3%	1.2%	92%
WN 193 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 10:55	BWI 13:10	10%	3%	0.8%	85%
WN 2612 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:30	BWI 11:45	11%	2%	0.9%	86%
AA 2088 American Flight history →	MCO 10:40	DCA 12:59	11%	6%	0.9%	93%
UA 1893 United Flight history →	MCO 09:37	IAD 11:55	12%	3%	0.7%	93%
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	12%	4%	1.2%	83%
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	13%	5%	2.1%	89%
UA 2065 United Flight history →	MCO 13:31	IAD 15:50	13%	5%	0.7%	83%
AA 2104 American Flight history →	MCO 12:13	DCA 14:31	15%	9%	0.9%	77%
WN 1908 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:45	DCA 12:00	16%	3%	0.8%	75%
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	16%	6%	0.9%	86%
F9 4230 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:07	IAD 10:33	19%	6%	1.0%	77%
WN 455 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 21:55	BWI 00:20	23%	9%	1.3%	55%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	23%	14%	2.7%	70%
WN 160 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 22:55	BWI 01:20	25%	9%	1.3%	81%
WN 1188 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:55	25%	9%	0.8%	53%
UA 413 United Flight history →	MCO 16:45	IAD 19:08	25%	9%	1.2%	73%
AA 2062 American Flight history →	MCO 14:37	DCA 16:59	27%	11%	1.2%	72%
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	28%	16%	1.0%	59%
WN 962 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 15:00	BWI 17:25	28%	8%	1.2%	62%
UA 1997 United Flight history →	MCO 19:05	IAD 21:30	28%	13%	1.2%	67%
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 21:19	DCA 23:37	30%	16%	1.9%	58%
WN 1015 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 19:50	BWI 22:15	31%	13%	1.6%	62%
WN 889 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 17:05	BWI 19:40	32%	13%	1.2%	54%
F9 2310 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:58	BWI 00:23	33%	16%	2.3%	67%
WN 1118 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 18:40	BWI 21:15	34%	13%	1.9%	32%
WN 2627 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 20:20	DCA 22:50	35%	17%	2.1%	40%
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:13	BWI 20:43	41%	21%	3.2%	57%
B6 2424 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:34	DCA 19:59	50%	26%	1.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON