Today: DL 1269 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–50%.

Safest bet today DL 1269 PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 1101 PHL 13:32 → ATL 15:50 · 52% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1269 Delta Flight history →	PHL 05:15	ATL 07:19	11%	3%	0.8%	90%
DL 2131 Delta Flight history →	PHL 16:08	ATL 18:32	18%	4%	0.8%	70%
DL 1152 Delta Flight history →	PHL 06:25	ATL 08:28	18%	3%	0.8%	89%
DL 1180 Delta Flight history →	PHL 08:05	ATL 10:11	21%	4%	0.7%	86%
DL 2279 Delta Flight history →	PHL 14:32	ATL 16:40	22%	3%	0.8%	81%
DL 794 Delta Flight history →	PHL 19:00	ATL 21:44	23%	5%	0.8%	72%
DL 1692 Delta Flight history →	PHL 17:17	ATL 19:29	26%	4%	0.8%	62%
DL 1795 Delta	PHL 10:44	ATL 13:00	26%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5050 PSA	PHL 06:04	ATL 08:22	26%	5%	1.3%	no record
AA 5037 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 07:00	ATL 09:15	27%	7%	1.3%	83%worse than usual
DL 1100 Delta Flight history →	PHL 10:40	ATL 12:49	28%	4%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
OH 5034 PSA	PHL 09:35	ATL 11:54	28%	9%	1.1%	no record
DL 1329 Delta Flight history →	PHL 19:25	ATL 21:42	28%	5%	0.8%	81%
AA 443 American Flight history →	PHL 21:58	ATL 00:15	30%	9%	1.2%	77%
AA 1892 American	PHL 21:53	ATL 00:13	30%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 3083 American Flight history →	PHL 10:58	ATL 13:16	33%	8%	0.6%	65%
F9 2551 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 06:30	ATL 09:05	33%	10%	1.4%	71%
AA 557 American	PHL 16:14	ATL 18:25	33%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 3041 American Flight history →	PHL 17:35	ATL 19:55	36%	10%	1.3%	69%
AA 2983 American Flight history →	PHL 18:27	ATL 20:50	37%	9%	1.2%	62%
F9 2297 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:30	ATL 11:00	39%	14%	1.2%	71%
DL 2270 Delta Flight history →	PHL 12:02	ATL 14:05	40%	6%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
AA 621 American Flight history →	PHL 11:15	ATL 13:35	43%	10%	0.6%	73%worse than usual
F9 1147 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 16:40	ATL 19:12	50%	21%	1.2%	41%
F9 1101 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 13:32	ATL 15:50	52%	16%	1.2%	60%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON