Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:54 pm at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 32%, against 22% on a calm day. Safest: PT 6102 at 16:35, 32%.

Nonstops today


PT 6102 Piedmont	PHL 16:35	AVL 18:41	32%	19%	1.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PHL 15:00 → DFW 17:50AA 402	1h 40m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:30 → AVL 22:56AA 4260 · flown by Envoy	7h 56m	81%	70%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	6h 29m	87%	67%
American Details →	PHL 16:02 → CLT 17:14AA 3012	2h 54m Charlotte	CLT 20:08 → AVL 21:02AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	5h 00m	92%	59%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	1h 05m Atlanta	ATL 19:37 → AVL 20:41DL 3071	4h 33m	65%	46%
Delta Details →	PHL 19:00 → ATL 21:44DL 794	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 22:46 → AVL 23:46DL 3116	4h 46m	58%	45%
American Details →	PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030	1h 10m Charlotte	CLT 20:08 → AVL 21:02AA 5899 · flown by Piedmont	4h 07m	64%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON