Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:22 pm at Philadelphia); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 52–53% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 5618 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:45	GSP 17:48	52%	29%	1.4%	68%worse than usual
OH 5451 PSA	PHL 17:46	GSP 19:41	53%	32%	1.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Greenville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 23m Atlanta	ATL 21:55 → GSP 22:55DL 2281	6h 47m	95%	71%
American Details →	PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030	3h 32m Charlotte	CLT 22:30 → GSP 23:24AA 5504 · flown by PSA	6h 29m	100%	66%
American Details →	PHL 16:02 → CLT 17:14AA 3012	3h 21m Charlotte	CLT 20:35 → GSP 21:30AA 5524 · flown by PSA	5h 28m	96%	59%
American Details →	PHL 16:10 → DCA 17:21AA 5363 · flown by PSA	2h 17m Washington	DCA 19:38 → GSP 21:26AA 5044 · flown by PSA	5h 16m	100%	45%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	1h 01m Atlanta	ATL 20:30 → GSP 21:31DL 3136	4h 14m	52%	38%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	50m Detroit	DTW 20:05 → GSP 21:47DL 1561	4h 19m	47%	38%
American Details →	PHL 16:02 → CLT 17:14AA 3012	46m Charlotte	CLT 18:00 → GSP 19:00AA 3422 · flown by Envoy	2h 58m	8%	6%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON