Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:51 pm at Philadelphia); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 28–35% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 5786 PHL 13:45 → GSP 15:48 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 5618 PHL 15:45 → GSP 17:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


AA 5786 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 13:45	GSP 15:48	28%	5%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
OH 5451 PSA	PHL 17:46	GSP 19:40	35%	15%	0.5%	no record
AA 5618 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 15:45	GSP 17:47	35%	16%	0.6%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON