tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:38 pm at Philadelphia); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
PT 6012 Piedmont PHL 16:48 ILM 18:25 28% 9% 1.0% no record
PT 5821 Piedmont PHL 19:45 ILM 21:22 28% 8% 1.0% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 21:20 → ILM 22:56DL 3070 6h 48m 95% 82%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:55 → CLT 18:58AA 3030 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017 6h 38m 100% 77%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 2h 47m Charlotte CLT 18:32 → ILM 19:40AA 2831 5h 51m 95% 72%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:28AA 3012 2h 52m Charlotte CLT 20:20 → ILM 21:26AA 2826 5h 36m 94% 69%
AmericanDetails → PHL 17:52 → MIA 20:46AA 3306 1h 12m Miami MIA 21:58 → ILM 23:59AA 3897 · flown by Envoy 6h 07m 75% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 19:35 → CLT 21:29AA 1661 56m Charlotte CLT 22:25 → ILM 23:33AA 1017 3h 58m 68% 52%
AmericanDetails → PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:28AA 3012 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 18:32 → ILM 19:40AA 2831 3h 50m 65% 49%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:22 → DFW 19:09AA 2356 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:10 → ILM 23:57AA 1841 7h 35m 63% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON