Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:38 pm at Philadelphia); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 29% on a calm day. Safest: AA 1664 at 22:30, 36%.

Safest bet today AA 1664 PHL 22:30 → PVD 23:46 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest OH 5636 PHL 17:59 → PVD 19:29 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Weather 41% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 29% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1664 American Flight history →	PHL 22:30	PVD 23:46	36%	8%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
OH 5317 PSA	PHL 22:09	PVD 23:36	36%	11%	1.0%	no record
AA 5183 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 17:35	PVD 18:59	46%	19%	1.3%	50%
OH 5636 PSA	PHL 17:59	PVD 19:29	46%	20%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON