tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:15 am at Philadelphia)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Today: AA 1621 at 08:39 is the safest bet, 30% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 46–50%.

Safest bet today AA 1621 PHL 08:39 → SAN 11:20 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest AA 3245 PHL 18:09 → SAN 21:09 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time
Against a calm day 43% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 36% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
AA 1621 American Flight history → PHL 08:39 SAN 11:20 30% 5% 0.6% 90%worse than usual
AA 1844 American PHL 16:15 SAN 19:08 46% 7% 0.6% no record
AA 1489 American Flight history → PHL 15:40 SAN 18:22 47% 6% 0.6% 80%worse than usual
AA 3245 American Flight history → PHL 18:09 SAN 21:09 50% 8% 0.6% 77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →
UnitedDetails → PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308 1h 38m Chicago ORD 20:11 → SAN 22:22UA 1564 8h 22m 89% 65%
UnitedDetails → PHL 15:10 → IAD 16:18UA 3593 · flown by Republic 1h 42m Dulles IAD 18:00 → SAN 20:23UA 2054 8h 13m 93% 64%
DeltaDetails → PHL 15:38 → MSP 17:37DL 2679 1h 13m Minneapolis MSP 18:50 → SAN 20:36DL 2145 7h 58m 81% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON