Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:29 pm at Philadelphia); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Today looks like a normal day here: all 6 nonstops are 25–31% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 1368 PHL 21:59 → STL 23:32 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time Riskiest AA 3049 PHL 15:32 → STL 17:12 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 61% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 27% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 1368 American Flight history →	PHL 21:59	STL 23:32	25%	8%	0.2%	77%
WN 2679 Southwest Flight history →	PHL 18:00	STL 19:30	30%	6%	0.1%	52%
OH 5347 PSA	PHL 20:55	STL 22:38	30%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 3342 Southwest	PHL 19:40	STL 21:14	31%	6%	0.1%	no record
AA 2714 American Flight history →	PHL 15:24	STL 17:02	31%	9%	0.3%	71%
AA 3049 American Flight history →	PHL 15:32	STL 17:12	31%	8%	0.3%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON