tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:44 pm at Phoenix); 3 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 48%, against 37% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2939 at 15:40, 48%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
AA 2939 American PHX 15:40 CVG 22:22 48% 10% 0.2% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hebron on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hebron is 3 h ahead of Phoenix). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:15 → ORD 18:49UA 1842 2h 47m Chicago ORD 21:36 → CVG 23:53UA 1030 7h 38m 100% 78%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:15 → ATL 20:14DL 796 2h 57m Atlanta ATL 23:11 → CVG 00:39 +1DL 2395 8h 24m 95% 74%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:28 → ORD 19:10UA 2628 2h 10m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148 7h 24m 88% 72%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:20 → SLC 15:58DL 1431 1h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 17:25 → CVG 22:46DL 2291 6h 26m 89% 70%
DeltaDetails → PHX 13:51 → MSP 19:00DL 2274 1h 20m Minneapolis MSP 20:20 → CVG 23:11DL 1469 6h 20m 85% 70%
SouthwestDetails → PHX 12:45 → BNA 18:00WN 3237 2h 45m Nashville BNA 20:45 → CVG 23:05WN 4522 7h 20m 98% 66%
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:01 → IAD 21:11UA 1017 1h 06m Dulles IAD 22:17 → CVG 23:59UA 3521 · flown by Republic 6h 58m 82% 66%
UnitedDetails → PHX 13:27 → DEN 16:19UA 709 1h 21m Denver DEN 17:40 → CVG 22:28UA 1615 6h 01m 89% 63%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHX 15:28 → ORD 21:30AA 2786 58m Chicago ORD 22:28 → CVG 00:53 +1AA 4737 · flown by Republic 6h 25m 60% 54%
UnitedDetails → PHX 14:48 → ORD 20:30UA 1686 50m Chicago ORD 21:20 → CVG 23:52UA 2148 6h 04m 57% 46%
DeltaDetails → PHX 20:18 → LAX 21:50DL 4077 · flown by SkyWest 55m Los Angeles LAX 22:45 → CVG 05:59 +1DL 458 6h 41m 58% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON