Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4286 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–35%.

Safest bet that day WN 4286 PHX 06:00 → SJC 08:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest AA 2576 PHX 16:40 → SJC 18:31 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4286 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 06:00	SJC 08:01	3%	1%	0.6%	97%
WN 1387 Southwest	PHX 07:45	SJC 09:47	7%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2978 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 07:45	SJC 09:40	8%	1%	0.6%	94%
WN 3336 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 09:40	SJC 11:35	12%	2%	0.6%	96%
WN 2016 Southwest	PHX 11:20	SJC 13:21	17%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2631 American	PHX 10:09	SJC 12:25	19%	6%	1.2%	no record
AA 3325 American Flight history →	PHX 10:04	SJC 11:59	22%	6%	1.2%	76%
WN 2893 Southwest	PHX 14:35	SJC 16:37	25%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4102 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 14:40	SJC 16:25	26%	3%	0.6%	86%worse than usual
AA 2016 American	PHX 13:32	SJC 15:34	26%	6%	1.2%	no record
WN 3337 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 19:45	SJC 21:40	30%	7%	0.5%	48%
AA 1197 American Flight history →	PHX 20:51	SJC 22:41	34%	9%	1.3%	62%
AA 2576 American Flight history →	PHX 16:40	SJC 18:31	35%	8%	1.2%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON