Today: MQ 3649 at 07:17 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–35%.

Safest bet today MQ 3649 PHX 07:17 → TUS 08:12 · 10% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2635 PHX 21:55 → TUS 22:42 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 20% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


MQ 3649 Envoy	PHX 07:17	TUS 08:12	10%	2%	0.3%	no record
WN 3496 Southwest	PHX 07:45	TUS 08:42	11%	1%	0.1%	no record
AA 3958 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 12:37	TUS 13:36	11%	3%	0.2%	90%
AA 4126 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	PHX 17:05	TUS 17:54	15%	4%	0.2%	88%
AA 6367 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 08:39	TUS 09:44	16%	5%	0.2%	83%
AA 6369 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 10:05	TUS 11:07	17%	6%	0.2%	79%
AA 1559 American	PHX 08:57	TUS 10:02	19%	6%	0.2%	no record
WN 4870 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 13:00	TUS 13:50	21%	3%	0.1%	77%
AA 3319 American	PHX 10:18	TUS 11:25	21%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 4935 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 12:15	TUS 13:09	24%	7%	0.1%	79%
AA 6373 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 13:35	TUS 14:29	26%	7%	0.1%	85%worse than usual
OO 6294 SkyWest	PHX 13:32	TUS 14:29	26%	7%	0.2%	no record
AA 6368 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 15:56	TUS 16:50	29%	8%	0.1%	59%
OO 6514 SkyWest	PHX 18:52	TUS 19:49	30%	12%	0.7%	no record
OO 6205 SkyWest	PHX 16:56	TUS 17:53	31%	6%	0.1%	no record
WN 1439 Southwest	PHX 22:35	TUS 23:32	31%	10%	0.5%	no record
AA 6309 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 20:48	TUS 21:46	33%	11%	0.7%	68%
WN 3564 Southwest Flight history →	PHX 22:50	TUS 23:45	33%	10%	0.5%	73%
AA 6370 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PHX 19:07	TUS 20:01	34%	12%	0.7%	65%
AA 3257 American	PHX 15:50	TUS 16:44	35%	8%	0.2%	no record
AA 2635 American Flight history →	PHX 21:55	TUS 22:42	35%	13%	1.2%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON