Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 1504 at 05:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–22%.

Safest bet that day DL 1504 PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 3122 PIT 20:05 → ATL 21:55 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1504 Delta Flight history →	PIT 05:45	ATL 07:25	7%	3%	1.2%	92%
DL 1380 Delta Flight history →	PIT 10:16	ATL 12:01	8%	2%	1.3%	92%
DL 1383 Delta Flight history →	PIT 07:05	ATL 08:50	10%	3%	1.1%	94%
DL 1363 Delta Flight history →	PIT 11:50	ATL 13:35	10%	3%	1.2%	94%
DL 1345 Delta Flight history →	PIT 13:57	ATL 15:45	14%	3%	1.2%	87%
DL 1353 Delta Flight history →	PIT 16:55	ATL 18:48	14%	4%	1.2%	84%
WN 3359 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 12:25	ATL 14:10	16%	3%	0.7%	92%
DL 1568 Delta Flight history →	PIT 18:13	ATL 20:05	19%	6%	1.0%	86%
WN 3523 Southwest	PIT 16:20	ATL 18:11	22%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 3122 Delta Flight history →	PIT 20:05	ATL 21:55	22%	6%	1.3%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON