Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: one nonstop, WN 4604 at 19:55, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


WN 4604 Southwest Flight history →	PIT 19:55	HOU 21:55	25%	8%	0.6%	46%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Pittsburgh). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	PIT 06:05 → DAL 07:55WN 4465	2h 04m Dallas	DAL 09:59 → HOU 11:18WN 15	6h 13m	100%	89%
Southwest Details →	PIT 06:30 → BNA 07:05WN 1935	1h 00m Nashville	BNA 08:05 → HOU 10:19WN 565	4h 49m	96%	86%
Delta Details →	PIT 05:45 → ATL 07:25DL 1504	1h 16m Atlanta	ATL 08:41 → HOU 09:45DL 1509	5h 00m	97%	81%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:45 → BWI 06:55WN 4417	1h 30m Baltimore	BWI 08:25 → HOU 10:40WN 4158	5h 55m	100%	81%
Southwest Details →	PIT 05:10 → MCO 07:30WN 3374	1h 21m Orlando	MCO 08:51 → HOU 10:18WN 2118	6h 08m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PIT 10:16 → ATL 12:01DL 1380	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 06m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:05 → ATL 08:50DL 1383	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → HOU 12:10DL 1195	6h 05m	97%	78%
Southwest Details →	PIT 08:45 → MDW 09:10WN 3378	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 11:50 → HOU 14:35WN 799	6h 50m	99%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PIT 15:37 → DFW 17:47AA 2664	47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:34 → HOU 19:53AA 3351 · flown by Envoy	5h 16m	66%	51%
American Details →	PIT 19:36 → DFW 21:43AA 2307	55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:38 → HOU 23:56AA 5465 · flown by PSA	5h 20m	69%	47%
Southwest Details →	PIT 18:55 → MCO 21:15WN 3376	1h 05m Orlando	MCO 22:20 → HOU 23:50WN 2645	5h 55m	68%	36%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON