Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 5753 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 5–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 5753 PIT 06:05 → LGA 07:33 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 5843 PIT 18:40 → LGA 20:15 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5753 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:05	LGA 07:33	5%	2%	0.7%	96%
AA 4610 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 06:09	LGA 07:39	5%	2%	0.7%	93%
YX 5815 Republic	PIT 08:10	LGA 09:46	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 5794 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:30	LGA 10:00	11%	3%	0.6%	75%
AA 4655 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 08:13	LGA 09:49	11%	3%	0.7%	73%
AA 4654 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:09	LGA 11:49	15%	4%	0.6%	80%
AA 4420 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 09:40	LGA 11:11	15%	4%	0.7%	83%
YX 5786 Republic	PIT 10:17	LGA 11:53	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 5796 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 10:30	LGA 11:56	18%	4%	0.6%	92%
DL 5694 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 13:00	LGA 14:36	27%	5%	0.6%	84%worse than usual
YX 4433 Republic	PIT 15:24	LGA 17:16	30%	6%	0.6%	no record
DL 5715 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 15:35	LGA 17:06	33%	6%	0.7%	68%
DL 5843 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PIT 18:40	LGA 20:15	37%	10%	0.7%	76%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON