Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:56 am at Pittsburgh); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, AA 1069 at 18:54, with a 39% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 1069 American Flight history →	PIT 18:54	MIA 21:44	39%	7%	1.3%	51%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Miami on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PIT 07:00 → ORD 07:48UA 2218	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:33 → MIA 14:57UA 1620	7h 57m	98%	89%
American Details →	PIT 08:51 → JFK 10:30AA 4587 · flown by Republic	3h 29m New York	JFK 13:59 → MIA 17:16AA 683	8h 25m	100%	86%
American Details →	PIT 08:00 → RDU 09:26AA 4531 · flown by Republic	2h 13m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 11:39 → MIA 13:57AA 2101	5h 57m	99%	85%
United Details →	PIT 07:35 → EWR 09:18UA 3513 · flown by Republic	2h 13m Newark	EWR 11:31 → MIA 14:38UA 2295	7h 03m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	PIT 10:25 → DTW 11:35DL 5607 · flown by Republic	2h 58m Detroit	DTW 14:33 → MIA 17:44DL 2548	7h 19m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	PIT 07:20 → JFK 09:00DL 5677 · flown by Republic	2h 08m New York	JFK 11:08 → MIA 14:22DL 1514	7h 02m	98%	83%
American Details →	PIT 08:12 → LGA 09:50AA 4655 · flown by Republic	3h 06m New York	LGA 12:56 → MIA 15:49AA 3016	7h 37m	99%	83%
American Details →	PIT 08:02 → ORD 09:00AA 4625 · flown by Republic	1h 06m Chicago	ORD 10:06 → MIA 14:19AA 2689	6h 17m	95%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PIT 17:05 → PHL 18:34AA 2312	1h 09m Philadelphia	PHL 19:43 → MIA 22:33AA 2132	5h 28m	72%	46%
American Details →	PIT 19:45 → PHL 21:09AA 6092 · flown by Piedmont	46m Philadelphia	PHL 21:55 → MIA 00:52 +1AA 2936	5h 07m	62%	36%
Delta Details →	PIT 17:04 → JFK 18:56DL 5085 · flown by Endeavor	59m New York	JFK 19:55 → MIA 23:37DL 1428	6h 33m	51%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON