Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:18 pm at Pensacola)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 35%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 279 at 17:15, 35%.

Nonstops today


WN 279 Southwest Flight history →	PNS 17:15	AUS 19:20	35%	10%	1.1%	73%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	PNS 15:15 → ORD 18:02AA 4023 · flown by Envoy	1h 40m Chicago	ORD 19:42 → AUS 22:48AA 438	7h 33m	91%	65%
Southwest Details →	PNS 14:10 → MCI 16:15WN 4795	3h 10m Kansas City	MCI 19:25 → AUS 21:25WN 302	7h 15m	99%	63%
American Details →	PNS 15:07 → MIA 18:01AA 3749 · flown by Envoy	1h 39m Miami	MIA 19:40 → AUS 21:40AA 2629	6h 33m	96%	55%
American Details →	PNS 15:34 → DFW 17:48AA 2320	3h 47m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972	7h 05m	92%	54%
American Details →	PNS 17:27 → DFW 19:37AA 5355 · flown by PSA	3h 13m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588	6h 24m	96%	53%
Southwest Details →	PNS 16:20 → DAL 18:10WN 3394	3h 45m Dallas	DAL 21:55 → AUS 23:05WN 4887	6h 45m	98%	52%
American Details →	PNS 16:04 → DFW 18:06AA 2328	2h 27m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	5h 33m	88%	50%
Delta Details →	PNS 18:08 → ATL 20:35DL 2211	2h 24m Atlanta	ATL 22:59 → AUS 00:18 +1DL 1335	6h 10m	97%	49%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	PNS 15:34 → DFW 17:48AA 2320	58m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:46 → AUS 19:56AA 616	4h 22m	53%	27%
American Details →	PNS 17:27 → DFW 19:37AA 5355 · flown by PSA	56m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:33 → AUS 21:37AA 2707	4h 10m	46%	26%
American Details →	PNS 16:04 → DFW 18:06AA 2328	54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 19:00 → AUS 20:03AA 789	3h 59m	43%	22%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON