Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 3:26 pm at Portland); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, DL 1821 at 16:52, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


DL 1821 Delta Flight history →	PWM 16:52	DTW 18:54	21%	6%	0.2%	72%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Detroit on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PWM 17:01 → ORD 18:48UA 1828	2h 32m Chicago	ORD 21:20 → DTW 23:54UA 3475 · flown by Republic	6h 53m	95%	86%
United Details →	PWM 15:46 → EWR 17:30UA 3620 · flown by Republic	3h 45m Newark	EWR 21:15 → DTW 23:24UA 3412 · flown by Republic	7h 38m	97%	78%
United Details →	PWM 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 1182	2h 28m Chicago	ORD 21:28 → DTW 23:49UA 349	6h 49m	94%	72%
United Details →	PWM 19:16 → IAD 21:14UA 3582 · flown by Republic	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 22:26 → DTW 00:13 +1UA 2846	4h 57m	90%	69%
Southwest Details →	PWM 17:20 → BWI 19:05WN 3414	3h 35m Baltimore	BWI 22:40 → DTW 00:20 +1WN 942	7h 00m	97%	66%
American Details →	PWM 16:52 → PHL 18:41AA 5127 · flown by PSA	3h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 22:18 → DTW 00:16 +1AA 5418 · flown by PSA	7h 24m	89%	59%
Delta Details →	PWM 16:12 → JFK 17:36DL 5399 · flown by Endeavor	1h 54m New York	JFK 19:30 → DTW 22:04DL 1253	5h 52m	92%	58%
Delta Details →	PWM 17:30 → LGA 18:59DL 5719 · flown by Republic	1h 31m New York	LGA 20:30 → DTW 22:51DL 1014	5h 21m	87%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	PWM 17:00 → ORD 19:00UA 1182	47m Chicago	ORD 19:47 → DTW 22:19UA 2426	5h 19m	71%	55%
American Details →	PWM 17:42 → DCA 19:44AA 1423	1h 16m Washington	DCA 21:00 → DTW 22:44AA 5597 · flown by PSA	5h 02m	56%	38%
American Details →	PWM 19:22 → CLT 21:58AA 497	53m Charlotte	CLT 22:51 → DTW 00:41 +1AA 370	5h 19m	62%	34%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON