Today: YX 3688 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–29%.

Safest bet today YX 3688 PWM 07:58 → ORD 10:04 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1828 PWM 17:00 → ORD 18:47 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 3688 Republic	PWM 07:58	ORD 10:04	5%	2%	0.3%	no record
AA 4391 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:00	ORD 08:11	7%	2%	0.5%	84%
UA 723 United Flight history →	PWM 06:00	ORD 08:00	8%	2%	0.3%	99%
AA 4499 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 06:52	ORD 08:58	8%	2%	0.3%	89%
UA 2170 United	PWM 05:53	ORD 07:49	9%	3%	0.5%	no record
AA 4488 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 12:16	ORD 14:22	9%	2%	0.3%	78%
AA 4741 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 12:57	ORD 15:03	9%	3%	0.3%	92%
AA 4774 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PWM 19:34	ORD 21:40	12%	4%	0.8%	80%
YX 4478 Republic	PWM 17:49	ORD 19:56	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 6046 SkyWest	PWM 11:40	ORD 13:39	17%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 1182 United Flight history →	PWM 17:00	ORD 19:00	26%	6%	0.2%	51%
UA 1828 United Flight history →	PWM 17:00	ORD 18:47	29%	6%	0.2%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON