tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:48 pm at Raleigh/Durham); 5 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41% (calm day: 20%). Best bet: Southwest via Nashville, leaving 21:15, 31% on time.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3417 Southwest Flight history → RDU 19:30 AUS 21:35 43% 14% 0.4% 32%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 1 h behind Raleigh/Durham). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → RDU 16:51 → IAH 18:58UA 2407 3h 17m Houston IAH 22:15 → AUS 23:12UA 1179 7h 21m 98% 61%
UnitedDetails → RDU 17:12 → ORD 18:42UA 630 1h 16m Chicago ORD 19:58 → AUS 22:54UA 312 6h 42m 76% 60%
DeltaDetails → RDU 17:25 → ATL 19:01DL 1550 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 22:59 → AUS 00:18 +1DL 1335 7h 53m 99% 57%
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:05 → DFW 19:19AA 2091 2h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 21:35 → AUS 22:39AA 972 6h 34m 95% 56%
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:30 → MIA 19:49AA 2406 2h 21m Miami MIA 22:10 → AUS 23:59AA 1427 7h 29m 90% 54%
AmericanDetails → RDU 16:53 → DFW 19:08AA 2371 3h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:50 → AUS 23:51AA 1588 7h 58m 95% 51%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 16:55 → DEN 18:40WN 3428 2h 10m Denver DEN 20:50 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 1481 8h 15m 95% 51%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 17:40 → BWI 18:50WN 1063 1h 05m Baltimore BWI 19:55 → AUS 22:43WN 949 6h 03m 76% 41%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:55 → STL 21:00WN 3457 55m St Louis STL 21:55 → AUS 23:55WN 4515 5h 00m 57% 35%
AmericanDetails → RDU 17:22 → PHL 19:01AA 2360 54m Philadelphia PHL 19:55 → AUS 23:00AA 1314 6h 38m 59% 33%
SouthwestDetails → RDU 19:45 → MDW 20:40WN 3766 55m Chicago MDW 21:35 → AUS 00:10 +1WN 775 5h 25m 43% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON