Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:46 am at Raleigh/Durham); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Today: YX 3404 at 11:52 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet today YX 3404 RDU 11:52 → EWR 13:48 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1205 RDU 18:33 → EWR 20:15 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


YX 3404 Republic	RDU 11:52	EWR 13:48	17%	7%	0.4%	no record
UA 3443 United flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 12:40	EWR 14:32	17%	6%	0.4%	95%worse than usual
UA 407 United	RDU 14:03	EWR 15:40	31%	14%	0.3%	no record
UA 1844 United	RDU 14:49	EWR 16:22	32%	16%	0.3%	no record
UA 2415 United Flight history →	RDU 15:30	EWR 17:16	35%	14%	0.3%	76%worse than usual
UA 2816 United	RDU 18:26	EWR 20:11	37%	13%	0.4%	no record
UA 1205 United Flight history →	RDU 18:33	EWR 20:15	39%	13%	0.4%	60%
DL 5273 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 11:35	EWR 13:23	27%	10%	3.0%	73%
DL 5222 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 17:00	EWR 18:49	42%	21%	9.2%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON