Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 11:38 am at Raleigh/Durham); 4 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Today: AA 4765 at 12:08 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–39%.

Safest bet today AA 4765 RDU 12:08 → JFK 13:59 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time Riskiest B6 2286 RDU 17:50 → JFK 19:30 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 39% on time

Against a calm day 32% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 25% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday. 4 flights that already left today are not shown.


AA 4765 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 12:08	JFK 13:59	17%	4%	0.2%	73%
AA 4690 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 18:16	JFK 20:21	22%	6%	0.2%	82%
B6 1486 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 18:37	JFK 20:18	37%	16%	0.5%	89%worse than usual
B6 2786 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 13:13	JFK 14:54	37%	16%	0.6%	77%worse than usual
B6 586 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 21:35	JFK 23:19	39%	12%	0.5%	35%
B6 2286 JetBlue Flight history →	RDU 17:50	JFK 19:30	39%	16%	0.5%	39%
DL 5009 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 13:53	JFK 15:50	32%	16%	6.7%	68%
DL 5219 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	RDU 20:01	JFK 22:06	36%	18%	7.2%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON