Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 6:30 am at Raleigh/Durham); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 29%, against 14% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3430 at 07:15, 11%.

Safest bet today WN 3430 RDU 07:15 → MCO 08:55 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 1111 RDU 14:31 → MCO 16:32 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Weather 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 1 flight that already left today is not shown.


WN 3430 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 07:15	MCO 08:55	11%	2%	0.3%	95%
WN 4764 Southwest	RDU 07:36	MCO 09:25	12%	3%	0.3%	no record
DL 1377 Delta Flight history →	RDU 11:26	MCO 13:15	25%	6%	0.4%	84%
WN 3566 Southwest	RDU 12:40	MCO 14:30	26%	4%	0.3%	no record
WN 2971 Southwest	RDU 19:10	MCO 21:00	33%	12%	2.1%	no record
DL 1319 Delta Flight history →	RDU 17:03	MCO 19:05	33%	11%	0.8%	68%
F9 1233 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 21:27	MCO 23:25	34%	13%	3.2%	68%
WN 3431 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 18:10	MCO 20:00	37%	12%	0.7%	56%
F9 1785 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 19:32	MCO 21:33	39%	14%	3.6%	76%worse than usual
F9 1111 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 14:31	MCO 16:32	40%	15%	1.1%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON