Today looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 10–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today AA 4532 RDU 08:00 → PIT 09:25 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest YX 4440 RDU 18:28 → PIT 20:04 · 13% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 12% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4532 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 08:00	PIT 09:25	10%	4%	0.3%	90%
AA 4493 American flown by Republic Flight history →	RDU 19:00	PIT 20:28	12%	4%	0.6%	70%
YX 4440 Republic	RDU 18:28	PIT 20:04	13%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON