Today: DL 1279 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–31%.

Safest bet today DL 1279 RDU 06:25 → TPA 08:16 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 2729 RDU 16:45 → TPA 18:58 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 16% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1279 Delta Flight history →	RDU 06:25	TPA 08:16	5%	2%	0.9%	94%
DL 1275 Delta Flight history →	RDU 18:07	TPA 20:03	16%	9%	1.3%	76%
WN 3605 Southwest	RDU 17:50	TPA 19:54	24%	10%	0.7%	no record
WN 4442 Southwest Flight history →	RDU 13:20	TPA 15:15	25%	6%	0.6%	82%
F9 2729 Frontier Flight history →	RDU 16:45	TPA 18:58	31%	13%	1.9%	90%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON