Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 4:00 pm at Rochester); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


YX 4703 Republic	ROC 18:16	BOS 19:55	18%	8%	0.7%	no record
AA 4709 American flown by Republic Flight history →	ROC 18:27	BOS 19:58	26%	9%	0.7%	64%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00UA 2059	2h 41m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	7h 22m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	ROC 18:15 → ATL 20:35DL 2047	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	7h 05m	91%	65%
Delta Details →	ROC 18:12 → LGA 19:33DL 5054 · flown by Endeavor	2h 27m New York	LGA 22:00 → BOS 23:15DL 5839 · flown by Republic	5h 03m	95%	64%
American Details →	ROC 17:05 → DCA 18:47AA 5457 · flown by PSA	2h 12m Washington	DCA 20:59 → BOS 22:40AA 4382 · flown by Republic	5h 35m	85%	61%
Southwest Details →	ROC 17:50 → BWI 19:10WN 4354	3h 20m Baltimore	BWI 22:30 → BOS 00:10 +1WN 892	6h 20m	98%	57%
American Details →	ROC 17:43 → DCA 19:15AA 5375 · flown by PSA	3h 15m Washington	DCA 22:30 → BOS 23:59AA 4051 · flown by Envoy	6h 16m	87%	54%
United Details →	ROC 16:15 → EWR 17:37UA 3580 · flown by Republic	3h 57m Newark	EWR 21:34 → BOS 23:00UA 1117	6h 45m	98%	53%
United Details →	ROC 20:00 → IAD 21:35UA 4874 · flown by CommuteAir	51m Dulles	IAD 22:26 → BOS 00:25 +1UA 1866	4h 25m	78%	51%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	ROC 17:43 → DCA 19:15AA 5375 · flown by PSA	1h 44m Washington	DCA 20:59 → BOS 22:40AA 4382 · flown by Republic	4h 57m	74%	53%
United Details →	ROC 17:52 → ORD 19:00UA 2059	46m Chicago	ORD 19:46 → BOS 23:05UA 1365	5h 13m	57%	39%
Southwest Details →	ROC 17:50 → BWI 19:10WN 4354	55m Baltimore	BWI 20:05 → BOS 21:40WN 4361	3h 50m	74%	33%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON