Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:44 pm at Fort Myers); 3 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 26–28% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


AA 2439 American Flight history →	RSW 14:47	PHL 17:40	26%	13%	1.3%	64%
AA 1834 American	RSW 16:43	PHL 19:38	28%	14%	1.4%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	RSW 14:32 → MSP 17:04DL 2400	3h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 20:25 → PHL 23:56DL 2703	9h 24m	93%	78%
United Details →	RSW 16:39 → ORD 19:00UA 2832	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:57 +1UA 1744	8h 18m	95%	76%
American Details →	RSW 17:09 → ORD 19:22AA 2561	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 21:45 → PHL 00:59 +1AA 490	7h 50m	94%	72%
United Details →	RSW 14:12 → ORD 16:22UA 2472	1h 37m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	7h 07m	93%	72%
Delta Details →	RSW 15:41 → ATL 17:34DL 1196	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 20:23 → PHL 22:27DL 1174	6h 46m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	RSW 18:27 → ATL 20:24DL 1349	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 22:56 → PHL 00:59 +1DL 2642	6h 32m	92%	64%
American Details →	RSW 14:25 → DFW 16:26AA 2438	3h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:19 → PHL 00:35 +1AA 2542	10h 10m	99%	63%
American Details →	RSW 14:42 → DFW 16:06AA 2740	2h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:35 → PHL 22:57AA 3242	8h 15m	92%	57%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	RSW 17:49 → DTW 20:45DL 2559	50m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	5h 27m	72%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON