Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 32 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 2970 at 06:35 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 2970 SAN 06:35 → LAS 08:15 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 1326 SAN 20:51 → LAS 22:21 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 24% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 2970 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 06:35	LAS 08:15	6%	1%	0.4%	96%
WN 2026 Southwest	SAN 07:13	LAS 08:36	11%	2%	0.4%	no record
WN 1848 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 08:38	LAS 10:00	13%	2%	0.8%	89%
WN 2310 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 07:45	LAS 09:05	13%	3%	0.4%	70%
WN 2695 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 09:45	LAS 11:10	16%	3%	0.8%	81%
WN 3510 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 22:40	LAS 00:15	18%	6%	0.7%	100%worse than usual
WN 1751 Southwest	SAN 11:13	LAS 12:35	24%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 3507 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:05	LAS 12:30	25%	4%	0.8%	69%
WN 365 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 21:25	LAS 22:55	26%	7%	0.7%	54%
WN 2356 Southwest	SAN 12:13	LAS 13:36	26%	5%	0.8%	no record
WN 1454 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:55	LAS 22:15	28%	8%	0.7%	8%
WN 2183 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 12:55	LAS 14:20	28%	8%	0.8%	48%
WN 1169 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 20:05	LAS 21:30	30%	9%	0.8%	20%
WN 1686 Southwest	SAN 13:09	LAS 14:31	30%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2352 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 18:05	LAS 19:30	30%	9%	0.8%	64%
WN 3508 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 11:55	LAS 13:20	31%	6%	0.8%	53%
WN 2084 Southwest	SAN 13:59	LAS 15:21	31%	6%	0.8%	no record
WN 2034 Southwest	SAN 18:46	LAS 20:09	31%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 1531 Southwest	SAN 20:02	LAS 21:25	31%	8%	0.8%	no record
WN 4160 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 19:00	LAS 20:25	33%	9%	0.8%	43%
WN 4230 Southwest	SAN 15:24	LAS 16:46	36%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4111 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:25	LAS 17:50	36%	10%	0.8%	16%
WN 1943 Southwest Flight history →	SAN 16:29	LAS 17:51	37%	9%	0.8%	59%
DL 3751 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SAN 15:50	LAS 17:20	39%	10%	1.0%	82%worse than usual
OO 3932 SkyWest	SAN 15:49	LAS 17:16	41%	12%	1.0%	no record
F9 1326 Frontier Flight history →	SAN 20:51	LAS 22:21	41%	16%	2.1%	57%
AS 2281 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 09:05	LAS 10:31	15%	0%	7.7%	85%
AS 2018 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 17:15	LAS 18:41	41%	20%	4.5%	59%
AS 2092 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 16:13	LAS 17:39	43%	13%	1.5%	57%
AS 2255 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 12:30	LAS 13:58	44%	9%	4.4%	56%
AS 2274 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 20:15	LAS 21:43	65%	31%	5.9%	35%
AS 2305 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SAN 22:02	LAS 23:28	73%	0%	13.3%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON