tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:05 pm at San Diego); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the legs’ average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 40% (calm day: 28%). Best bet: American via O'Hare, leaving 13:07, 73% on time.

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Omaha on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Omaha is 2 h ahead of San Diego). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:07 → ORD 19:54AA 811 3h 06m Chicago ORD 23:00 → OMA 00:37 +1AA 3198 9h 30m 100% 73%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:30 → STL 19:05WN 3552 2h 48m St Louis STL 21:53 → OMA 23:29WN 492 7h 59m 100% 72%
UnitedDetails → SAN 13:39 → SFO 15:19UA 1763 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 18:45 → OMA 00:19 +1UA 1763 8h 40m 96% 67%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:25 → LAS 17:50WN 4111 3h 15m Las Vegas LAS 21:05 → OMA 01:50 +1WN 4587 7h 25m 100% 65%
AmericanDetails → SAN 13:37 → ORD 19:10AA 2131 3h 42m Chicago ORD 22:52 → OMA 00:39 +1AA 3334 9h 02m 95% 64%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 17:10 → PHX 18:35WN 2521 2h 50m Phoenix PHX 21:25 → OMA 01:55 +1WN 3311 6h 45m 100% 60%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 13:50 → PHX 15:15WN 765 3h 50m Phoenix PHX 19:05 → OMA 23:47WN 1589 7h 57m 100% 57%
SouthwestDetails → SAN 16:29 → LAS 17:51WN 1943 1h 59m Las Vegas LAS 19:50 → OMA 00:34 +1WN 4499 6h 05m 88% 57%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SAN 16:09 → SFO 17:49UA 2117 56m San Francisco SFO 18:45 → OMA 00:19 +1UA 1763 6h 10m 42% 30%
UnitedDetails → SAN 14:00 → ORD 20:20UA 1779 56m Chicago ORD 21:16 → OMA 22:49UA 2336 6h 49m 40% 29%
AlaskaDetails → SAN 15:04 → SEA 17:49AS 685 58m Seattle SEA 18:47 → OMA 23:59AS 556 6h 55m 27% 13%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON