Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 1:21 pm at Louisville); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 41%, against 25% on a calm day. Safest: MQ 3961 at 18:19, 40%.

Nonstops today


MQ 3961 Envoy	SDF 18:19	BOS 20:46	40%	13%	0.6%	no record
AA 3438 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	SDF 17:10	BOS 19:36	43%	15%	0.6%	58%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Boston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SDF 17:50 → ORD 18:40UA 5929 · flown by SkyWest	3h 01m Chicago	ORD 21:41 → BOS 01:14 +1UA 1779	7h 24m	100%	74%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:32 → MSP 17:42DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	2h 27m Minneapolis	MSP 20:09 → BOS 23:55DL 2614	7h 23m	95%	70%
Delta Details →	SDF 16:47 → ATL 18:25DL 3195	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → BOS 23:59DL 2269	7h 12m	98%	65%
Delta Details →	SDF 18:54 → ATL 20:34DL 1126	2h 06m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → BOS 01:20 +1DL 865	6h 26m	92%	65%
Southwest Details →	SDF 17:05 → BWI 18:45WN 4209	3h 45m Baltimore	BWI 22:30 → BOS 00:10 +1WN 892	7h 05m	100%	65%
American Details →	SDF 17:19 → ORD 18:06AA 4668 · flown by Republic	2h 23m Chicago	ORD 20:29 → BOS 00:05 +1AA 2682	6h 46m	95%	64%
American Details →	SDF 15:39 → CLT 17:24AA 5397 · flown by PSA	3h 00m Charlotte	CLT 20:24 → BOS 22:33AA 1843	6h 54m	99%	62%
Delta Details →	SDF 14:09 → LGA 16:30DL 5637 · flown by Republic	3h 30m New York	LGA 20:00 → BOS 21:15DL 5800 · flown by Republic	7h 06m	100%	62%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SDF 18:04 → CLT 19:35AA 3219	49m Charlotte	CLT 20:24 → BOS 22:33AA 1843	4h 29m	71%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON