tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:30 pm at Seattle)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 70%, against 23% on a calm day. Safest: QX 2417 at 13:58, 70%.

Nonstops today

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2417 Horizon SEA 13:58 ELP 18:28 70% 30% 0.6% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach El Paso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (El Paso is 1 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → SEA 12:45 → LAS 15:20WN 3620 2h 25m Las Vegas LAS 17:45 → ELP 20:30WN 4260 6h 45m 100% 63%
UnitedDetails → SEA 12:50 → DEN 16:42UA 1351 2h 38m Denver DEN 19:20 → ELP 21:11UA 333 7h 21m 95% 60%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 17:35 → LAS 20:15WN 2267 2h 00m Las Vegas LAS 22:15 → ELP 01:04 +1WN 4563 6h 29m 85% 55%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 17:20 → PHX 20:15WN 3354 2h 30m Phoenix PHX 22:45 → ELP 00:55 +1WN 662 6h 35m 98% 51%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 14:35 → DEN 18:20WN 3617 2h 35m Denver DEN 20:55 → ELP 22:47WN 1586 7h 12m 94% 49%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 2h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 22:59 → ELP 23:46AA 1607 8h 49m 92% 48%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 14:25 → SAN 17:20WN 4910 2h 50m San Diego SAN 20:10 → ELP 23:05WN 3498 7h 40m 96% 42%
Tight connection: often missed
SouthwestDetails → SEA 15:05 → DAL 21:00WN 1404 52m Dallas DAL 21:52 → ELP 22:43WN 1361 6h 38m 37% 22%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 13:50 → AUS 20:05WN 4956 1h 00m Austin AUS 21:05 → ELP 21:35WN 298 6h 45m 30% 15%
AmericanDetails → SEA 13:57 → DFW 20:04AA 717 48m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:52 → ELP 21:48AA 1514 6h 51m 1% 1%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON