tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Southwest via Midway, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Fort Lauderdale on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 28% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 516 Alaska Flight history → SEA 08:23 FLL 17:27 14% 4% 0.6% 83%
DL 338 Delta Flight history → SEA 13:00 FLL 21:52 18% 5% 0.8% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Lauderdale on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Lauderdale is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:19 → MSP 05:38DL 953 3h 12m Minneapolis MSP 08:50 → FLL 13:25DL 673 10h 06m 100% 93%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:06AA 379 1h 59m Chicago ORD 08:05 → FLL 12:25AA 1461 9h 18m 100% 83%
DeltaDetails → SEA 05:30 → SLC 08:30DL 1128 2h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → FLL 17:28DL 745 8h 58m 98% 83%
SouthwestDetails → SEA 05:30 → MDW 11:25WN 2810 1h 25m Chicago MDW 12:50 → FLL 16:50WN 1487 8h 20m 100% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 15:33 → SFO 17:47UA 2866 3h 28m San Francisco SFO 21:15 → FLL 05:59 +1UA 1230 11h 26m 96% 82%
UnitedDetails → SEA 05:00 → DEN 08:43UA 2601 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:56 → FLL 16:05UA 1214 8h 05m 97% 82%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:27 → ATL 08:18DL 652 2h 07m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → FLL 12:23DL 1512 8h 56m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → SEA 17:30 → LAX 20:13DL 2861 2h 46m Los Angeles LAX 22:59 → FLL 07:05 +1DL 477 10h 35m 97% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SEA 07:05 → IAH 13:31UA 2135 49m Houston IAH 14:20 → FLL 18:07UA 462 8h 02m 64% 50%
DeltaDetails → SEA 00:27 → ATL 08:18DL 652 48m Atlanta ATL 09:06 → FLL 11:03DL 1271 7h 36m 56% 41%
AmericanDetails → SEA 00:07 → ORD 06:06AA 379 54m Chicago ORD 07:00 → FLL 11:04AA 1851 7h 57m 28% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON