Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: UA 419 at 06:10 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 419 SFO 06:10 → EWR 15:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest UA 713 SFO 10:20 → EWR 19:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Against a calm day 18% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 18% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 419 United Flight history →	SFO 06:10	EWR 15:00	9%	2%	0.7%	91%
UA 2416 United Flight history →	SFO 00:01	EWR 08:01	10%	3%	0.3%	75%
UA 1149 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	EWR 15:49	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
UA 517 United	SFO 06:04	EWR 14:51	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2248 United Flight history →	SFO 15:00	EWR 23:50	16%	6%	0.7%	67%
UA 435 United Flight history →	SFO 08:15	EWR 16:53	16%	5%	0.7%	83%
UA 698 United Flight history →	SFO 21:15	EWR 05:51	19%	4%	0.8%	84%
UA 1141 United Flight history →	SFO 22:35	EWR 07:00	21%	4%	0.8%	83%
UA 2626 United Flight history →	SFO 16:20	EWR 01:10	22%	7%	0.7%	70%
UA 274 United Flight history →	SFO 11:15	EWR 20:10	23%	8%	0.7%	76%
UA 366 United Flight history →	SFO 13:45	EWR 22:26	23%	9%	0.7%	57%
UA 2480 United Flight history →	SFO 13:12	EWR 22:02	24%	10%	0.7%	61%
UA 2467 United	SFO 10:25	EWR 18:54	25%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 713 United Flight history →	SFO 10:20	EWR 19:03	25%	9%	0.7%	75%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SFO 00:35 → MSP 06:09DL 2789	1h 01m Minneapolis	MSP 07:10 → EWR 10:49DL 2864	7h 14m	93%	85%
United Details →	SFO 00:04 → RDU 08:05UA 2080	55m Raleigh/Durham	RDU 09:00 → EWR 10:42UA 1669	7h 38m	92%	74%
Delta Details →	SFO 19:24 → SLC 22:14DL 2652	1h 24m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038	7h 36m	91%	74%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON