Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 24 nonstops

Tomorrow: DL 2721 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2721 SFO 05:55 → SEA 08:05 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AS 656 SFO 10:18 → SEA 12:27 · 50% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 29% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 22% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2721 Delta Flight history →	SFO 05:55	SEA 08:05	9%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 1412 Delta Flight history →	SFO 13:30	SEA 15:47	17%	6%	0.6%	77%
UA 1007 United Flight history →	SFO 20:45	SEA 23:10	19%	8%	0.5%	66%
UA 1708 United Flight history →	SFO 07:00	SEA 09:22	19%	4%	0.6%	92%worse than usual
AS 620 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 06:03	SEA 08:13	22%	3%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
UA 1577 United Flight history →	SFO 18:28	SEA 20:53	22%	8%	0.5%	69%
UA 5579 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 22:45	SEA 01:15	23%	9%	0.8%	72%
UA 2279 United Flight history →	SFO 16:27	SEA 18:47	24%	8%	0.5%	76%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	SFO 12:10	SEA 14:30	27%	8%	0.5%	72%
DL 3991 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 20:59	SEA 23:17	27%	9%	0.6%	67%
AS 591 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 20:28	SEA 22:41	28%	8%	0.7%	72%
UA 1265 United Flight history →	SFO 14:00	SEA 16:20	28%	8%	0.5%	59%
DL 3707 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SFO 17:29	SEA 19:44	28%	10%	0.6%	68%
AS 1340 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 15:50	SEA 18:00	28%	7%	0.7%	69%
AS 758 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 17:38	SEA 19:47	30%	8%	0.7%	73%
AS 790 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 14:20	SEA 16:31	31%	6%	0.7%	73%
DL 2870 Delta Flight history →	SFO 10:35	SEA 12:48	33%	7%	0.6%	42%
OO 5790 SkyWest	SFO 07:48	SEA 10:19	35%	7%	0.7%	no record
AS 68 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 07:03	SEA 09:13	37%	5%	0.7%	87%worse than usual
UA 2192 United Flight history →	SFO 10:15	SEA 12:34	37%	8%	0.5%	47%
UA 500 United	SFO 10:17	SEA 12:26	38%	8%	0.5%	no record
AS 1327 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 09:00	SEA 11:15	39%	9%	0.7%	69%
AS 630 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 12:27	SEA 14:35	41%	7%	0.7%	21%
AS 656 Alaska Flight history →	SFO 10:18	SEA 12:27	50%	9%	0.7%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON