Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 28 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 4341 at 06:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 4341 SJC 06:40 → SAN 08:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3526 SJC 17:45 → SAN 19:10 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 4341 Southwest	SJC 06:40	SAN 08:13	9%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3489 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 06:30	SAN 08:00	9%	1%	0.7%	92%
WN 496 Southwest	SJC 08:00	SAN 09:33	15%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 4261 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 08:25	SAN 09:50	16%	2%	0.7%	78%
AS 1307 Alaska	SJC 06:31	SAN 08:07	16%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3507 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 09:00	SAN 10:25	16%	2%	0.7%	73%
WN 3058 Southwest	SJC 09:00	SAN 10:33	16%	2%	0.7%	no record
AS 1623 Alaska Flight history →	SJC 07:13	SAN 08:43	18%	3%	0.7%	75%
OO 3408 SkyWest	SJC 09:16	SAN 10:53	27%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 367 Southwest	SJC 10:20	SAN 11:53	27%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 1133 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 10:05	SAN 11:30	28%	3%	0.7%	69%
WN 3653 Southwest	SJC 11:30	SAN 13:03	28%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 3499 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 09:09	SAN 10:45	29%	6%	0.8%	73%
WN 3698 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 11:50	SAN 13:15	30%	4%	0.7%	56%
WN 4811 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 12:30	SAN 13:55	30%	5%	0.7%	29%
AS 3059 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 10:03	SAN 11:43	31%	7%	0.9%	79%
AS 3429 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 15:15	SAN 16:49	33%	9%	0.9%	67%
WN 2974 Southwest	SJC 13:00	SAN 14:33	33%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3359 SkyWest	SJC 11:13	SAN 12:50	33%	9%	0.9%	no record
AS 3211 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SJC 17:02	SAN 18:36	33%	9%	1.2%	61%
WN 4265 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 21:05	SAN 22:35	36%	9%	0.7%	48%
WN 3700 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 13:45	SAN 15:10	37%	5%	0.7%	50%
WN 3669 Southwest	SJC 14:00	SAN 15:33	37%	6%	0.7%	no record
WN 3702 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:00	SAN 18:25	37%	7%	0.7%	52%
WN 4513 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 19:00	SAN 20:25	37%	8%	0.7%	33%
WN 3701 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 14:55	SAN 16:20	38%	6%	0.7%	46%
WN 3526 Southwest Flight history →	SJC 17:45	SAN 19:10	38%	6%	0.7%	44%
AS 2213 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SJC 20:12	SAN 21:48	41%	8%	1.7%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON