Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 29 nonstops

Tomorrow: WN 3859 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3859 SJU 06:30 → MCO 09:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 1745 SJU 15:54 → MCO 19:08 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Against a calm day 24% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3859 Southwest	SJU 06:30	MCO 09:35	6%	2%	0.7%	no record
WN 3723 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 09:50	MCO 12:55	9%	3%	0.7%	86%
WN 3860 Southwest	SJU 10:10	MCO 13:15	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 4962 Southwest	SJU 05:00	MCO 08:05	10%	2%	2.3%	no record
WN 3721 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 05:00	MCO 08:00	10%	2%	2.3%	95%
WN 3722 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 06:00	MCO 09:00	10%	2%	2.2%	92%
WN 2592 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 11:35	MCO 14:40	14%	5%	1.0%	79%
B6 722 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:34	MCO 11:39	16%	6%	0.9%	80%
B6 1134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 08:25	MCO 11:32	16%	6%	0.9%	70%
WN 3861 Southwest	SJU 12:35	MCO 15:40	18%	8%	1.0%	no record
F9 2981 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 06:59	MCO 10:14	18%	6%	1.9%	87%
WN 4959 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 13:15	MCO 16:25	18%	9%	0.9%	72%
WN 3728 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 22:20	MCO 01:20	19%	8%	1.2%	65%
B6 1434 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 05:01	MCO 08:01	20%	7%	2.4%	80%
WN 1729 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 20:15	MCO 23:20	22%	12%	0.9%	75%
F9 2867 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 10:41	MCO 13:56	23%	8%	1.3%	88%worse than usual
B6 234 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 04:56	MCO 08:03	24%	8%	3.1%	83%
B6 1334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 11:10	MCO 14:17	24%	9%	1.0%	73%
WN 4613 Southwest Flight history →	SJU 18:30	MCO 21:30	25%	12%	0.8%	60%
WN 4960 Southwest	SJU 16:10	MCO 19:14	25%	10%	1.3%	no record
F9 1823 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 03:10	MCO 06:10	30%	8%	9.7%	81%worse than usual
F9 4725 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 12:21	MCO 15:35	33%	12%	1.9%	67%
F9 3505 Frontier	SJU 22:48	MCO 01:57	35%	16%	3.2%	no record
B6 228 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 18:48	MCO 21:55	39%	17%	1.2%	68%
B6 334 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 17:15	MCO 20:24	41%	16%	1.3%	69%worse than usual
F9 2249 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 18:09	MCO 21:21	41%	16%	1.9%	86%worse than usual
B6 934 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 14:44	MCO 17:52	42%	17%	2.3%	81%worse than usual
B6 2134 JetBlue Flight history →	SJU 15:59	MCO 19:07	42%	17%	2.1%	63%
F9 1745 Frontier Flight history →	SJU 15:54	MCO 19:08	46%	16%	2.7%	69%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON