Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 10:00 PM ET · 35 nonstops

Today: WN 5021 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–44%.

Safest bet today WN 5021 SMF 08:30 → SAN 10:05 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4293 SMF 18:45 → SAN 20:20 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 44% on time

Against a calm day 30% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 21% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 5021 Southwest	SMF 08:30	SAN 10:05	12%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4374 Southwest	SMF 09:05	SAN 10:47	14%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 4372 Southwest	SMF 06:10	SAN 07:52	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
WN 3555 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 06:25	SAN 07:55	17%	3%	0.7%	88%
AS 490 Alaska	SMF 06:59	SAN 08:42	21%	4%	2.2%	no record
WN 4869 Southwest	SMF 10:45	SAN 12:27	22%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3818 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 09:30	SAN 11:00	23%	3%	0.6%	65%
AS 1680 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 07:23	SAN 09:05	23%	4%	1.8%	75%
WN 4373 Southwest	SMF 08:00	SAN 09:42	24%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 1460 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 07:30	SAN 09:00	25%	4%	0.7%	76%
WN 1222 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 10:45	SAN 12:20	25%	3%	0.6%	62%
AS 3015 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 08:36	SAN 10:20	25%	8%	0.8%	70%
WN 2939 Southwest	SMF 11:50	SAN 13:31	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4768 Southwest	SMF 12:40	SAN 14:22	27%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3330 SkyWest	SMF 10:19	SAN 12:05	27%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4290 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 11:40	SAN 13:10	30%	4%	0.6%	50%
AS 350 Alaska	SMF 17:21	SAN 19:02	30%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 2537 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 12:40	SAN 14:10	33%	4%	0.6%	57%
WN 296 Southwest	SMF 15:15	SAN 16:56	33%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3151 Southwest	SMF 13:30	SAN 15:12	34%	4%	0.6%	no record
OO 3360 SkyWest	SMF 14:54	SAN 16:40	35%	9%	0.9%	no record
AS 3036 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 17:37	SAN 19:21	35%	8%	1.0%	54%
WN 4774 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 15:15	SAN 16:45	37%	6%	0.6%	53%
WN 258 Southwest	SMF 16:30	SAN 18:11	37%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 3439 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 13:30	SAN 15:14	37%	8%	0.8%	77%worse than usual
AS 3410 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:01	SAN 21:46	37%	7%	0.9%	67%
WN 3212 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 14:20	SAN 15:50	39%	6%	0.6%	57%
WN 3106 Southwest	SMF 19:10	SAN 20:51	40%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3670 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:25	SAN 20:06	41%	6%	0.6%	82%worse than usual
WN 1169 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:00	SAN 19:30	41%	6%	0.6%	23%
WN 3822 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 20:25	SAN 22:00	41%	8%	0.6%	43%
WN 4292 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 16:40	SAN 18:10	42%	6%	0.6%	58%
WN 4293 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 18:45	SAN 20:20	44%	6%	0.6%	44%
AS 2406 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 16:43	SAN 18:20	38%	8%	2.0%	62%
AS 2101 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 10:13	SAN 11:50	43%	11%	2.2%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON