tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:44 am at Sacramento)
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: Southwest via Kansas City, leaving 11:50, is the safest bet: 69% chance of reaching St Louis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 52% of the time.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 920 Southwest Flight history → SMF 10:25 STL 16:05 19% 4% 0.1% 72%
WN 2940 Southwest SMF 13:30 STL 19:17 23% 3% 0.4% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:10 → STL 16:48DL 1224 8h 33m 98% 87%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:55 → DEN 09:15WN 3773 1h 15m Denver DEN 10:30 → STL 13:39WN 1798 5h 44m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → SMF 13:19 → MSP 18:48DL 1701 3h 02m Minneapolis MSP 21:50 → STL 23:22DL 1609 8h 03m 100% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 06:15 → LAS 07:40WN 2178 1h 01m Las Vegas LAS 08:41 → STL 13:53WN 1409 5h 38m 100% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:12DL 1526 1h 28m Salt Lake City SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33DL 2455 6h 03m 96% 84%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 05:00 → SEA 06:55WN 4920 2h 05m Seattle SEA 09:00 → STL 14:50WN 3632 7h 50m 100% 84%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 13m Denver DEN 09:35 → STL 12:42UA 652 5h 42m 98% 84%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:13 → SEA 08:16AS 1409 1h 24m Seattle SEA 09:40 → STL 15:31AS 647 7h 18m 100% 83%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 12:56 → PHX 14:50AA 2630 58m Phoenix PHX 15:48 → STL 20:54AA 890 5h 58m 71% 48%
AmericanDetails → SMF 11:02 → DFW 16:35AA 2633 1h 22m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 17:57 → STL 19:50AA 2487 6h 48m 71% 47%
SouthwestDetails → SMF 10:45 → SAN 12:20WN 1222 1h 00m San Diego SAN 13:20 → STL 18:55WN 4576 6h 10m 52% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON