Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 2:19 pm at St Louis)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 3933 Southwest Flight history →	STL 15:35	JAX 18:35	24%	4%	0.6%	71%
WN 4973 Southwest	STL 19:55	JAX 23:02	29%	6%	0.5%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Jacksonville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Jacksonville is 1 h ahead of St Louis). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	STL 15:35 → MDW 16:40WN 556	2h 40m Chicago	MDW 19:20 → JAX 22:40WN 2792	6h 05m	100%	78%
American Details →	STL 14:31 → ORD 15:59AA 3815 · flown by Envoy	3h 30m Chicago	ORD 19:29 → JAX 23:05AA 2096	7h 34m	97%	70%
Southwest Details →	STL 17:35 → BNA 18:45WN 694	2h 05m Nashville	BNA 20:50 → JAX 23:29WN 4631	4h 54m	99%	67%
United Details →	STL 14:57 → IAH 17:16UA 5580 · flown by SkyWest	2h 44m Houston	IAH 20:00 → JAX 23:20UA 2293	7h 23m	92%	62%
Southwest Details →	STL 14:30 → BNA 15:40WN 3888	1h 51m Nashville	BNA 17:31 → JAX 20:10WN 170	4h 40m	94%	61%
Delta Details →	STL 15:58 → ATL 18:43DL 2700	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 21:33 → JAX 22:50DL 2315	5h 52m	97%	59%
Delta Details →	STL 16:54 → ATL 19:45DL 543	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:45 → JAX 23:02DL 1001	5h 08m	97%	58%
American Details →	STL 15:24 → DFW 17:25AA 1363	2h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:16 → JAX 23:41AA 2506	7h 17m	95%	54%
Tight connection: often missed
Southwest Details →	STL 17:40 → HOU 19:45WN 5065	50m Houston	HOU 20:35 → JAX 23:55WN 4797	5h 15m	72%	51%
American Details →	STL 17:13 → DFW 19:15AA 2712	1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 20:16 → JAX 23:41AA 2506	5h 28m	61%	35%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON