Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 12:51 pm at Charlotte Amalie)

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 16% on a calm day. Safest: WN 3995 at 14:45, 26%.

Nonstops today


WN 3995 Southwest Flight history →	STT 14:45	MCO 17:50	26%	9%	0.6%	70%
WN 4136 Southwest	STT 14:50	MCO 18:05	26%	9%	0.6%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	STT 15:50 → MIA 18:54AA 1391	3h 51m Miami	MIA 22:45 → MCO 23:56AA 3174	8h 06m	100%	66%
United Details →	STT 16:45 → IAD 20:58UA 1445	1h 58m Dulles	IAD 22:56 → MCO 01:15 +1UA 689	8h 30m	95%	65%
American Details →	STT 16:50 → MIA 19:54AA 2738	1h 57m Miami	MIA 21:51 → MCO 23:02AA 3265	6h 12m	98%	63%
American Details →	STT 13:49 → MIA 16:50AA 2744	4h 00m Miami	MIA 20:50 → MCO 22:08AA 1700	8h 19m	98%	62%
American Details →	STT 16:46 → CLT 20:55AA 1965	1h 34m Charlotte	CLT 22:29 → MCO 00:17 +1AA 1879	7h 31m	88%	60%
American Details →	STT 13:38 → CLT 17:06AA 2684	3h 09m Charlotte	CLT 20:15 → MCO 22:00AA 3200	8h 22m	96%	60%
Delta Details →	STT 15:33 → ATL 19:30DL 1883	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 22:25 → MCO 23:58DL 1162	8h 25m	96%	53%
United Details →	STT 13:22 → IAH 17:25UA 2208	1h 01m Houston	IAH 18:26 → MCO 21:58UA 2451	8h 36m	84%	50%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	STT 13:21 → ATL 17:14DL 1823	46m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → MCO 19:48DL 2035	6h 27m	68%	33%
JetBlue Details →	STT 15:38 → SJU 16:20B6 435	55m San Juan	SJU 17:15 → MCO 20:24B6 334	4h 46m	54%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON