Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 9:39 am at Tampa); 1 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today: one nonstop, WN 432 at 13:30, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops today


WN 432 Southwest Flight history →	TPA 13:30	BHM 14:00	24%	3%	0.1%	65%

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Birmingham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Birmingham is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TPA 10:05 → BNA 11:00WN 4003	1h 25m Nashville	BNA 12:25 → BHM 13:30WN 225	4h 25m	97%	84%
Southwest Details →	TPA 10:45 → MDW 12:25WN 4033	1h 40m Chicago	MDW 14:05 → BHM 15:45WN 496	6h 00m	98%	83%
Southwest Details →	TPA 10:40 → BWI 13:00WN 1016	2h 35m Baltimore	BWI 15:35 → BHM 16:40WN 3656	7h 00m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852	2h 28m Detroit	DTW 15:51 → BHM 16:55DL 4647 · flown by Endeavor	7h 14m	97%	79%
American Details →	TPA 13:54 → MIA 15:03AA 2831	2h 24m Miami	MIA 17:27 → BHM 18:29AA 3422 · flown by Envoy	5h 35m	92%	79%
Delta Details →	TPA 16:39 → ATL 18:17DL 1720	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 21:44 → BHM 21:40DL 2257	6h 01m	96%	78%
United Details →	TPA 11:42 → IAH 13:25UA 1979	2h 55m Houston	IAH 16:20 → BHM 18:18UA 4256 · flown by CommuteAir	7h 36m	97%	78%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:00 → ATL 11:35DL 2605	1h 56m Atlanta	ATL 13:31 → BHM 13:24DL 3012	4h 24m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	TPA 13:54 → MIA 15:03AA 2831	47m Miami	MIA 15:50 → BHM 16:55AA 3629 · flown by Envoy	4h 01m	67%	56%
American Details →	TPA 13:57 → DFW 15:46AA 3245	53m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 16:39 → BHM 18:35AA 3417 · flown by Envoy	5h 38m	65%	50%
United Details →	TPA 17:25 → IAH 18:52UA 1834	1h 03m Houston	IAH 19:55 → BHM 21:53UA 4022 · flown by Mesa	5h 28m	65%	48%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON