tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 10:15 am at Tampa); 2 already left
Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 26%, against 15% on a calm day. Safest: WN 408 at 11:00, 13%.

Nonstops today

All 2 nonstops →
WN 408 Southwest TPA 11:00 BUF 13:46 13% 2% 0.3% no record
WN 1281 Southwest TPA 20:25 BUF 23:11 39% 6% 0.5% no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Buffalo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → TPA 10:45 → MDW 12:25WN 4033 1h 00m Chicago MDW 13:25 → BUF 16:09WN 845 5h 24m 90% 80%
AmericanDetails → TPA 16:29 → PHL 19:14AA 2838 3h 06m Philadelphia PHL 22:20 → BUF 23:53AA 5911 · flown by Piedmont 7h 24m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → TPA 10:57 → EWR 13:48UA 2858 2h 49m Newark EWR 16:37 → BUF 18:05UA 3607 · flown by Republic 7h 08m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:10 → LGA 13:54DL 770 2h 20m New York LGA 16:14 → BUF 17:44DL 5792 · flown by Republic 6h 34m 100% 74%
AmericanDetails → TPA 15:28 → CLT 17:26AA 2832 3h 39m Charlotte CLT 21:05 → BUF 22:51AA 703 7h 23m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → TPA 16:32 → ATL 18:23DL 1167 3h 29m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 7h 27m 97% 73%
UnitedDetails → TPA 12:30 → ORD 14:40UA 2223 3h 15m Chicago ORD 17:55 → BUF 20:31UA 1335 8h 01m 95% 72%
DeltaDetails → TPA 11:14 → ATL 12:52DL 1227 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → BUF 18:41DL 2050 7h 27m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → TPA 18:57 → IAD 21:30UA 1370 56m Dulles IAD 22:26 → BUF 23:59UA 3516 · flown by Republic 5h 02m 69% 60%
AmericanDetails → TPA 18:59 → DCA 21:25AA 2773 1h 15m Washington DCA 22:40 → BUF 23:59AA 4131 · flown by Envoy 5h 00m 64% 42%
DeltaDetails → TPA 19:04 → ATL 21:04DL 1425 48m Atlanta ATL 21:52 → BUF 23:59DL 2334 4h 55m 44% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON