Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 9:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Tomorrow: AA 2538 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 2538 TPA 07:15 → CLT 09:07 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest AA 2753 TPA 19:14 → CLT 21:01 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 22% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 19% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Mon, Oct 5

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2538 American Flight history →	TPA 07:15	CLT 09:07	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 653 American	TPA 06:57	CLT 08:42	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1704 American Flight history →	TPA 08:36	CLT 10:25	15%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 2828 American Flight history →	TPA 11:56	CLT 13:53	16%	5%	1.8%	89%
AA 637 American	TPA 10:40	CLT 12:35	18%	5%	1.8%	no record
AA 3320 American Flight history →	TPA 10:12	CLT 12:00	18%	4%	0.7%	87%
AA 1154 American	TPA 13:59	CLT 15:48	22%	6%	1.6%	no record
AA 2836 American Flight history →	TPA 13:54	CLT 15:51	23%	7%	1.3%	59%
AA 1974 American	TPA 12:04	CLT 13:48	23%	5%	1.6%	no record
AA 2832 American Flight history →	TPA 15:28	CLT 17:26	24%	9%	1.0%	65%
AA 1975 American	TPA 15:37	CLT 17:26	25%	8%	1.2%	no record
AA 2784 American Flight history →	TPA 16:51	CLT 18:49	25%	9%	1.3%	76%
AA 1982 American	TPA 17:16	CLT 19:00	36%	9%	1.6%	no record
AA 2753 American	TPA 19:14	CLT 21:01	38%	9%	1.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON