Today looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 38–46% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet today UA 1117 TPA 15:59 → EWR 18:59 · 38% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1501 TPA 17:45 → EWR 20:36 · 46% chance 15+ min late · usually 49% on time

Against a calm day 42% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 35% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. 5 flights that already left today are not shown.


UA 1117 United	TPA 15:59	EWR 18:59	38%	11%	0.5%	no record
UA 1321 United Flight history →	TPA 16:24	EWR 19:24	38%	11%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
UA 392 United	TPA 19:08	EWR 21:49	42%	11%	0.7%	no record
UA 1206 United Flight history →	TPA 16:21	EWR 19:10	44%	12%	0.6%	52%
UA 1501 United Flight history →	TPA 17:45	EWR 20:36	46%	14%	0.6%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON