Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 27%, against 17% on a calm day. Safest: AA 2859 at 06:12, 9%.

Safest bet today AA 2859 TPA 06:12 → LGA 09:00 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest DL 1762 TPA 18:42 → LGA 21:19 · 44% chance 15+ min late

Weather 27% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 17% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop today

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2859 American Flight history →	TPA 06:12	LGA 09:00	9%	3%	0.4%	90%
AA 539 American Flight history →	TPA 05:53	LGA 08:34	10%	3%	0.4%	87%
DL 2723 Delta Flight history →	TPA 07:30	LGA 10:15	11%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 770 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:10	LGA 13:54	26%	4%	0.7%	76%
DL 2531 Delta Flight history →	TPA 11:06	LGA 13:44	29%	5%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
DL 2195 Delta Flight history →	TPA 14:45	LGA 17:44	30%	10%	0.8%	70%
AA 2805 American Flight history →	TPA 12:11	LGA 15:00	31%	8%	0.6%	73%
DL 2454 Delta Flight history →	TPA 18:44	LGA 21:59	35%	12%	1.0%	70%
DL 2106 Delta Flight history →	TPA 16:25	LGA 19:26	37%	13%	0.8%	70%
AA 872 American	TPA 12:09	LGA 14:48	38%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 1762 Delta	TPA 18:42	LGA 21:19	44%	13%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON