Today: only flights still to leave (it’s 8:53 am at Tampa); 2 already left

Monday, October 5 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Today looks rough: weather pushes the average chance of arriving 15+ min late to 38%, against 19% on a calm day. Safest: WN 4177 at 21:45, 31%.

Nonstops today


WN 4177 Southwest	TPA 21:45	MCI 23:40	31%	9%	0.8%	no record
WN 4176 Southwest	TPA 16:20	MCI 18:12	45%	7%	0.3%	no record

Best connections today, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Tampa). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	TPA 10:15 → STL 11:40WN 4049	3h 25m St Louis	STL 15:05 → MCI 16:22WN 487	7h 07m	100%	87%
Southwest Details →	TPA 10:45 → MDW 12:25WN 4033	2h 00m Chicago	MDW 14:25 → MCI 15:57WN 2915	6h 12m	99%	87%
Southwest Details →	TPA 09:05 → BWI 11:25WN 4009	1h 55m Baltimore	BWI 13:20 → MCI 15:17WN 1444	7h 12m	100%	84%
United Details →	TPA 09:15 → IAH 10:42UA 2319	3h 53m Houston	IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa	8h 32m	98%	84%
Southwest Details →	TPA 17:20 → BNA 18:15WN 4005	4h 00m Nashville	BNA 22:15 → MCI 00:05 +1WN 614	7h 45m	98%	83%
American Details →	TPA 09:53 → MIA 11:06AA 2781	3h 42m Miami	MIA 14:48 → MCI 17:23AA 3939 · flown by Envoy	8h 30m	98%	82%
Southwest Details →	TPA 10:05 → BNA 11:00WN 4003	1h 30m Nashville	BNA 12:30 → MCI 14:10WN 5063	5h 05m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	TPA 10:41 → DTW 13:23DL 2852	2h 31m Detroit	DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761	7h 13m	98%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	TPA 17:45 → EWR 20:36UA 1501	1h 07m Newark	EWR 21:43 → MCI 23:59UA 1399	7h 14m	59%	35%
Delta Details →	TPA 15:18 → ATL 16:54DL 1525	51m Atlanta	ATL 17:45 → MCI 18:55DL 1470	4h 37m	59%	34%
Delta Details →	TPA 18:03 → ATL 19:48DL 759	49m Atlanta	ATL 20:37 → MCI 21:55DL 3023	4h 52m	42%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Mon, Oct 5 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON